SMIFS is bullish about Symphony for 33% upside gain

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Pee Vee
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SMIFS is bullish about Symphony for 33% upside gain

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Cooling Leader: Unlocking Value

Symphony Ltd is India’s undisputed leader in the organised air cooler market with a 50% value share. Company has continued to follow its successful approach — focusing on an asset-light model supported by strong innovation, smart marketing and solid brand strategy. By partnering with OEMs for manufacturing, Symphony has maintained a light balance sheet and a clear strategic focus — a move that has helped it stay ahead in the rapidly changing consumer market. Indian air cooler market is currently valued at ~Rs 50 billion with 35% market share of organized players. In next 5–7 years, the market is expected to grow to ~Rs 100 billion, with the organized segment to reach ~40%. This growth will be driven by rising incomes, frequent heatwaves, increasing rural penetration, product innovation and wider distribution. Supportive domestic demand, boosted by income tax reforms, also adds to growth outlook. Management is actively taking steps to streamline its portfolio by monetising its subsidiaries IMPCO and CT (Australia) but company will continue to service those markets. These actions are focused on improving ROCE, channelising management bandwidth and increasing focus on high-growth markets. Post recent correction, Symphony offers an attractive entry point, trading at 27x FY27E EPS. We forecast a 17% earnings CAGR over FY25–27E, led by shift toward the organized air cooler segment and market expansion. Assigning a 36x FY27E EPS multiple (~25% discount from 5 year mean PE), we arrive at a target price of Rs 1,500, implying a 33% upside. We initiate coverage with BUY rating for leadership, resilience and growth.

Leveraging Brand Equity and Asset-Light Model to Sustain Leadership

 Worldwide, Symphony has sold 25 million+ coolers, which highlights its market strength and global reach. It has a leadership position in India’s air cooler market, holding a 50% value share in organised market by combining smart strategy with brand strength. Its asset-light approach — 100% outsourcing through 13 OEMs — allows it to stay nimble, focusing efforts on innovation, brand building and market expansion.

 Symphony continues to invest in brand building with high-impact campaigns across TV and digital platforms. A&P spends is ~6.3% of sales in FY25 (one of the highest in peers), cementing its “India ka No.1 Cooler” positioning. This focus has translated into real pricing power with Symphony commanding a premium over competitors like Voltas and Havells. Even more notable is that it sells mostly on advance payment terms, which reflects the strong brand loyalty and trust it has built with its channel partners.

Innovating Beyond Air Coolers for Sustainable Growth

 Innovation is a core part of Symphony’s identity. In FY25, it introduced 17 new products and is the first company to launch BLDC air cooler globally, demonstrating its commitment to staying ahead of the curve.

 Symphony is also expanding its portfolio beyond air coolers into related categories like 1) large space ventilation cooling (for commercial use), 2) tabletop cooling range which include portable fans and kitchen cooling fans 3) tower fans and 4) water heaters. These new segments align well with Symphony’s strengths in manufacturing and distribution while having similar profit margins.

 This combination of innovation and diversification is expected to drive ~7% CAGR growth in topline for FY25–27E, setting the stage for Symphony’s next phase of expansion.

Strategic Subsidiary Exits to Boost Return Ratios and Strengthen Core Focus

 IMPCO and CT: Monetization in Motion: Symphony has begun the process of selling its stakes in IMPCO (Mexico) and CT (Australia), whose combined ROCE is just 1%, weighing down overall group performance. Investment bankers have been appointed to evaluate strategic partners.

 IPR Monetization: Management confirmed the ~$5.1 million sale of 9 IPRs to IMPCO which will fund GSK’s loan repayment to Symphony India. GSK to retain 50+ IPRs; remains a tech and sourcing hub for Asia and exports. Tax-neutral structure aligned with transfer pricing laws-net proceeds to be used to fully repay Symphony India loan, making GSK debt-free.

 Strategic Rationale: These monetization steps are aimed at improving group level ROCE, enhancing capital efficiency and freeing up management capacity. The focus will shift to high growth opportunities in India and export markets like the US, Brazil, Europe, Mexico and Australia.

Valuation

 Symphony stands out as a market leader, driven by ongoing innovation and strong customer relationships. It is well-placed to benefit from the growing shift toward the organized air cooler segment, while also expanding its presence in rural markets. The planned exit from subsidiaries and increased focus on high-growth regions further support its long-term growth potential.

 We expect Symphony to report a CAGR of 7%/7%/17% at Revenue/EBITDA/reported PAT level over FY25- 27E. Also, long term contracts with OEMs, robust cash conversion cycle (less than 2 months) & sustainable 25%+ return ratios, strong balance sheet deserves rerating in multiple.

 The stock is trading at P/E of ~27x on FY27E EPS. We assign 36x (25% discount from 5 year mean PE ratio) as the target multiple and arrive at target price of Rs 1,500 per share which is upside of ~33% from current valuations. We assign BUY rating on the stock for leadership, resilience and growth.

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