Sobha Ltd is Buy for target price of ₹2113 (35% upside)

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Pee Vee
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Sobha Ltd is Buy for target price of ₹2113 (35% upside)

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Presales – Quarterly presales at all time high crossing the Rs20Bn milestone: Sobha reported highest ever quarterly presales of Rs20.79Bn, a growth of 11%YoY & 13%QoQ. The performance was driven by two launches viz., Sobha Aurum, Noida and 4 towers of Marina One, Kochi. ~80% of Aurum has been sold in the first quarter itself generating sales of Rs8.34Bn. New launches contributed to ~50% of total presales in Q1FY26. Overall, NCR and Kerala contributed 57% and 10% respectively to total presales. Bangalore continued to remain steady registering presales of Rs6Bn (29% of total presales). Pune and Hyderabad saw presales decline sharply by 71%YoY & 85%QoQ to Rs94Mn owing to lack of new launches. Sobha’s share of presales increased by 26%YoY & 25%QoQ to Rs17.17Bn (83% of total presales Vs 72%/75% in Q1FY25/Q4FY25 respectively).

Sales Area – NCR contributed ~50% to total volumes: Total area sold for the quarter of 1.4msft, an increase of 23%YoY & decline of 7%QoQ. The total area sold was primarily driven by the strong response received from the debut launch in Noida. Bangalore remained flattish YoY contributing 32% to sales volumes while 12% of volumes came from Kerala aided by the launch of Marina One. Average realizations decreased by 10%YoY & expanded by 22%QoQ to Rs14,395/sft.

New Launches – Foray into Noida market: In Q1FY26, Sobha launched 2 projects with a combined saleable area of 1.62msft of which Sobha Aurum, Noida has a saleable area of 0.70msft and Marina One, Kochi comprises a saleable area of 0.92msft. Sobha’s forthcoming project pipeline is 17.7msft of which 6-8msft is expected to be launched in 9MFY26. Bangalore (43% of total) and NCR (33% of total) will continue to see majority of the launches and furthermore, Sobha is planning to enter Mumbai market.

Operating Cash Flow – Highest ever collections from Real Estate segment increased OCF inflow by 15%YoY: OCF inflow stood at Rs17.8Bn, a growth of 15%YoY and flattish sequentially, primarily led by real estate collections of Rs16.0Bn Vs Rs13.9Bn/Rs15.8Bn in Q1FY25/Q4FY25. Collections from C&M biz improved by 17%YoY & declined by 11%QoQ to Rs1.8Bn. Net OCF came in at Rs4.0Bn Vs Rs3.2Bn/Rs4.6Bn in Q1FY25/Q4FY25 respectively.

Contracts & Manufacturing – C&M biz contributed 19% to revenue: Revenue from C&M division degrew by 2%YoY & 11%QoQ to Rs1.62Bn (including inter-segment). Both contracts and manufacturing biz contributed 50% each to C&M revenue. EBIT margins came in at 9.1% VS 16.2%/12.9% in Q1FY25/Q4FY25 respectively.
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