JM is bullish about Gokaldas Exports for target price of ₹1265 (33.9% upside)

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Pee Vee
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JM is bullish about Gokaldas Exports for target price of ₹1265 (33.9% upside)

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We recently hosted the management of Gokaldas Exports for an investor roadshow, represented by Mr. Siva Ganapathi (Vice Chairman and MD) and Mr. Sathyamurthy (CFO). The management provided insights on the demand scenario and future outlook for the company in a situation of tariff uncertainty. Company expects near-term (2-2.5 quarters) challenges as higher costs will be borne by suppliers and retailers simultaneously. Though, this additional cost is expected to be passed on to the end customers eventually, leading to a recovery in margins in 2HFY26. Company also witnessed some impact in order book for 2QFY26 but expects it to recover post some clarity on tariffs in July (end of 90-day pause). Company believes that in a case where tariffs sustain at 10%, additional costs will be shared amongst retailer, supplier (Indian exporters) and end-consumers. Even if tariffs are reinstated to the initial levels with India at ~26%, Indian players remain well-placed given higher tariffs to be faced by other countries like Vietnam, China, Bangladesh etc. In both these situations, additional cost is expected to be passed on to the end-consumer over time. Company plans to take a decision on BTPL merger soon. If approved, merger is expected to be completed in next year. The longer term seems favourable with a continuing shift of global sourcing away from China given higher tariffs, supplier consolidation towards efficient and well capitalized players, and supply-side instabilities in several countries. Gokaldas exports remain our top pick in the textile space. Re-iterate BUY.

 Margin pressure near-term: Given the on-going tariff uncertainty, company expects nearterm challenges as higher tariffs may raise retail prices and dampen demand, though this cost will eventually be passed on to the end-customers. If reinstated, tariffs could impact consumer demand in 2HCY25. Company also witnessed some impact in order book for 2QFY26 but expects it to be plugged post some clarity on tariffs in July (end of 90-day pause). Margins are expected to decline to the tune of 2-2.5% in the next 2 quarters but company expects recovery in 2HFY26.

 Company remains well-placed in the long-term: Company believes that in a case where tariffs sustain at 10%, additional costs will be shared amongst retailer, suppliers (Indian exporters) and end-consumers. This might impact margins in the short-term but the longterm margin outlook remains stable. Also, if India-US BTA comes through, it can be a big boost to the margins for the whole sector as existing ad-valorem tariffs on textiles ranging from ~14% to 32% will come down to zero. Even if tariffs are reinstated to the initial levels with India at ~26%, Indian players remain well-placed given higher tariffs to be faced by other countries like Vietnam, China, Bangladesh etc.

 New expansions to aid capacity constraints: The company is working on expanding production capacities with on-going investments – 1) construction of unit II in MP (revenue potential ~1.75bn) 2) Karnataka unit (revenue potential ~1.3bn) and 3) Incremental unit in Ranchi with additional 200 machines with 2 shifts (revenue potential ~550mn). Company plans to take a decision on BTPL merger soon. If approved, merger is expected to be completed in FY27. Strategic investment in BTPL allows the company to derive utmost benefit through vertical integration into critical raw materials, with expected standalone peak revenue at INR15bn+.

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