TIME is the world’s largest manufacturer of large size plastic drums, with an impressive 50-60% market share in India and a significant share in 10 other countries. It was the first company to launch intermediate bulk containers (IBC) in India and is now the third largest IBC manufacturer worldwide. Additionally, TIME ranks as the second largest global manufacturer of Type-IV composite LPG and CNG cylinders.
We are optimistic about its value-added composite products (LPG and CNG cascade cylinders), stable and long-standing industrial packaging (drums, jerry cans, IBC etc.) business, and focus on improving financials to turn net debt-free over the next 1-2 years.
After clocking a CAGR of 16%/19%/39% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY21-25, we estimate a CAGR of 15%/16%/23% over FY25-28E, led by strong performance in its value-added product (VAP) segment (20% revenue CAGR, 18%+ EBITDA margin) and strong cash flow generation. Asset monetization, business restructuring, and cost reduction measures will improve operational efficiency and strengthen the balance sheet.
Despite annual capex of ~INR1.7b, we estimate pre-tax RoCE/RoIC to expand from ~18% each in FY25 (FY24: 16-17%) to ~23%/26% in FY28 on healthy operating performance, improved plant efficiency and tightening of net working capital cycle (by 10-15 days). An estimated annual FCF of INR4b+ will be used to pare debt and achieve net cash status in FY27E (vs. net debt of INR5.9b/4.7b in FY24/FY25). We estimate healthy OCF/EBITDA (~60%+) and FCF/PAT (80%+) over the next three years.
