JMFICS has recommended Juniper Hotels for 29.7% upside gain
Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2025 7:58 pm
We attended the analyst meet hosted by Juniper Hotels wherein the company highlighted its vision to double the room inventory to c. 4,000 keys by 2030. With the portfolio growing to ~2x of its current size, the management is targeting to grow revenue and EBITDA by 2x/3x in 3/5 years respectively driven by (i) ramp-up in existing portfolio, (ii) ROFO assets (iii) commissioning of new hotels at Bengaluru (Phase I and II), Kaziranga and Guwahati and (iv) planned acquisition of brownfield big box assets. With an extremely comfortable leverage position and steady cash flows from its existing portfolio, the company is well positioned to embark on its next phase of growth. We estimate revenue CAGR of c.15% over FY25-28E and EBITDA CAGR of c.22% over the same period (ex-ROFO assets), with EBITDA margin expected to reach 43% by FY28E. We maintain a BUY rating with a target price (TP) of INR 410, valuing the company at 18x Mar’27 EBITDA.
Strong visibility to double the portfolio: Under the Juniper 2.0 strategy, the management is targeting to double the portfolio room count to c. 4,000 keys over the next few years. The ROFO transaction is already underway, which will add c. 737 keys across two assets and is expected to be closed in 8-10 months. The recently acquired 220-keys asset near Bengaluru Airport will be commissioned by end-FY26 and the company will soon commence the work on Phase 2 of the project, a new hotel block comprising 250 keys. The Kaziranga hotel with 115 keys will become operational by FY28 under the “ALILA” brand by Hyatt. The company owns 74k sqft of land adjacent to the Secretariat in Guwahati and the management has unveiled plans to develop a 250-room luxury property at the site. Additionally, the company is also pursuing two new greenfield opportunities, which could add c. 500 keys to the portfolio. Given the low leverage of 1.4x net debt to EBITDA, the management is confident of funding the capex without straining the balance sheet.
ROFO – just a question of “when”, not “if”: The management acknowledged that the initial timeline for completion of the ROFO transaction (by Mar’25) was optimistic but assured that all the assets owned by the Saraf family will be eventually injected into Juniper. Since there is a cool-off period of 2 years, post any amalgamation or restructuring exercise undertaken by any entity, the management intends to conclude the amalgamation of both the assets in one go. It has made significant progress on the approvals (has secured clearances from SEBI and the stock exchanges) and is confident on closing the transaction soon.
Strong acquisition pipeline: The recent acquisition of a big box hotel in Bengaluru is a significant milestone given that the international traffic at Bengaluru airport is expected to double in 3-5 years and there is no meaningful supply coming up in this micro-market. Hence, the operating hotels even in the upper upscale segment are currently commanding INR 10k+ ARR. The company is evaluating assets with similar dynamics in NCR, Hyderabad and Navi Mumbai and is targeting to close a few brownfield transactions within 3-4 months.
Strong visibility to double the portfolio: Under the Juniper 2.0 strategy, the management is targeting to double the portfolio room count to c. 4,000 keys over the next few years. The ROFO transaction is already underway, which will add c. 737 keys across two assets and is expected to be closed in 8-10 months. The recently acquired 220-keys asset near Bengaluru Airport will be commissioned by end-FY26 and the company will soon commence the work on Phase 2 of the project, a new hotel block comprising 250 keys. The Kaziranga hotel with 115 keys will become operational by FY28 under the “ALILA” brand by Hyatt. The company owns 74k sqft of land adjacent to the Secretariat in Guwahati and the management has unveiled plans to develop a 250-room luxury property at the site. Additionally, the company is also pursuing two new greenfield opportunities, which could add c. 500 keys to the portfolio. Given the low leverage of 1.4x net debt to EBITDA, the management is confident of funding the capex without straining the balance sheet.
ROFO – just a question of “when”, not “if”: The management acknowledged that the initial timeline for completion of the ROFO transaction (by Mar’25) was optimistic but assured that all the assets owned by the Saraf family will be eventually injected into Juniper. Since there is a cool-off period of 2 years, post any amalgamation or restructuring exercise undertaken by any entity, the management intends to conclude the amalgamation of both the assets in one go. It has made significant progress on the approvals (has secured clearances from SEBI and the stock exchanges) and is confident on closing the transaction soon.
Strong acquisition pipeline: The recent acquisition of a big box hotel in Bengaluru is a significant milestone given that the international traffic at Bengaluru airport is expected to double in 3-5 years and there is no meaningful supply coming up in this micro-market. Hence, the operating hotels even in the upper upscale segment are currently commanding INR 10k+ ARR. The company is evaluating assets with similar dynamics in NCR, Hyderabad and Navi Mumbai and is targeting to close a few brownfield transactions within 3-4 months.