Adani Wilmar released a strong Q4FY25 business update ahead of our initial expectations. We now expect revenue to grow 36% YoY versus our initial estimate of 19% YoY growth (31.4% in Q3FY25 on a base of 16.9% decline; 4.6% fall in Q4FY24). We anticipate overall volumes to grow ~7% YoY versus our initial expectation of 5% YoY growth (up 5% in Q3FY25; 3% in Q4FY24). EBITDA shall grow 61% YoY mainly due to higher realisations in oil business. Gross margin shall decrease 100bp YoY to 12.5% while EBITDA margins shall expand 48bp YoY to 3.2%.
For FY25, volume shall grow 10% YoY with edible oils volumes contributing 10% YoY increase and Food & FMCG sectors clocking a robust 28% YoY volume growth; retain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR424.